Levels of Unsold Home Inventory in Sarasota and Bradenton Remain Low

The levels of unsold single family homes in Sarasota inched up slightly at the end of November but remained more than 50% off the peak established in early 2008. Across the county, inventory is back to late 2005 levels. The same is true for Manatee County.

Unsold condominium inventory in both counties was also essentially flat with the previous month but still down nearly 40% and 55% from the early 2007 highs in Sarasota County and Manatee County, respectively. Condominium inventory for both counties is back to late 2005/early 2006 levels.

On a neighborhood –by- neighborhood basis, the some of the declines are even more severe, as the chart below shows:

	Inventory @
Area	12/1/2009	Peak	Month of inventory Peak	% Decline
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ZIP 34202 (mostly Lakewood Ranch)	285	1283	Mar-07	-78%
West of Trail (Mound to Bay Road)	87	184	Apr-07	-53%
Longboat Key	155	305	Mar-07	-49%
Anna Maria Island	225	449	Feb-07	-50%
CONDOMINIUMS
ZIP 34202 (mostly Lakewood Ranch)	64	447	Nov-06	-86%
ZIP 34236 (downtown Sarasota plus Lido/St. Armands)	400	706	Apr-07	-43%
Longboat Key	392	548	Feb-07	-28%
Anna Maria Island	177	433	Feb-07	-59%
West Manatee County	396	706	Mar-07	-44%
Source of data is Trendgraphics for the dates and areas indicated

If this trend continues or if inventory just holds at these levels, prices have got to start firming up. The big fear is that another round of foreclosures will rain on the parade.  What happens with foreclosures is the big wild card.

According to the Federal Reserve website, 9.8% (Q3 2009 data) of all residential mortgages are in default. That’s up from 5.3% for the same quarter in 2008. According to the Center for Responsible Lending, there were 2,400,000 foreclosures in 2009. With delinquency rate nearly twice last year’s rate, what will 2009 foreclosures be? And Florida is the undisputed leader in foreclosures. More on all of this in later posts.